- The Euro has seen a little bit of upward pressure on Wednesday against the US dollar as we continue to consolidate overall.
- That being said, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of volatility and choppy behavior around the 1.16 level, an area that I think is going to continue to be a little bit of a magnet.
On a Rally…
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If the market were to rally at this point in time, the next concern will be the 50-day EMA at the 1.1670 level. The previous uptrend line sits just above there, so I think that offers resistance as well. So, truthfully, I'm not overly excited about the euro. I recognize that maybe we are testing a pretty significant support level, and we will have to wait and see whether or not we break down.
If we break down below the 1.1550 level, then I think you've got more momentum to reach down to the 1.14 level. That is where the 200-day EMA currently resides, and it is worth noting that a breakdown below that then traditionally signals a downtrend. On the chart, I have the FOMC meeting candlestick circled, and it's worth noting that the Federal Reserve did, in fact, cut rates and they suggested that maybe there's some rate cuts coming and the euro has done nothing but fall with the occasional little bounce on a couple of sessions since that announcement.
This is the exact opposite of what I was hearing as people were starting to bet on the collapse of the US dollar, the world's reserve currency status and everything else. Anytime things get hyperbolic like that, I almost always start buying dollars and so far, it's worked out quite nicely. The candlestick over the Tuesday and Wednesday session does suggest a little bit of stability, so maybe we've got some sideways action ahead of us. Maybe we have a little bit of a rally. But at this point in time, I'm looking at signs of exhaustion to start selling again.
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