- The US dollar has gone back and forth during the trading session here on Wednesday as we got weaker than anticipated producers price index numbers, but really, it doesn't change much. And we get CPI on Thursday.
- So, all things being equal, I think you've got a situation where we are still very much in a range.
- Which in this particular pair is not the worst scenario because there is an interest rate differential that favors the US dollar and therefore owning the dollar is not a bad idea.
You can see what happened on Tuesday where we plunged towards the 146.50 level only to turn around and bounce and form a nasty looking hammer. That hammer sitting on the 50 day EMA is basically where we're hanging out now. I think this is a market that given half a chance will probably try to reach the 149 yen level or at least something close to it. And then repeat the process.
We do get a Federal Reserve interest rate decision statement and press conference next Thursday. And I think that might be pretty much what everybody's waiting for. It's not really a question as to whether or not the Federal Reserve will cut rates. I think we all pretty much assume that. But the question is, what will the outlook be from there? How aggressive are they going to be as far as cutting is concerned?
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“Buy on the Dip?” Possibly.
In general, I think this is a buy on the dip market. Maybe it's an interest collecting type of exercise and a longer term potential move. We'll just have to wait and see. But really at this point, I've just been buying dips and selling it when it rallies a bit, letting it fall, buy it again, and repeating the process time and time again. It is worth noting that we saw this collapse back on August 1st after it was clear that the Federal Reserve was probably going to cut and then we haven't done anything since then. So sometimes it's all about what the market won't do. In this case, it doesn't look like it break down.
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