- The German DAX has been back and forth during the trading session here on Monday, as we continue to compress in what can only be described as a symmetrical triangle.
- All things being equal, this is a market that is getting ready to try and make a bigger move, but ultimately this is a market that I think is one worth watching, because the text of course is starting to run out of momentum.
- The question at this point in time will be “Is the DAX trying to tell us something?”
If it is trying to tell us something, I don’t think it’s necessarily specific to Germany. I think it has a lot to do with the global markets overall. After all, we do have central banks around the world looking to cut interest rates, and of course if they do, the question then becomes “Is there something wrong with the global economy?” If that’s the case, the Germans may find themselves in a bit of trouble due to the fact that they are such heavy industrial exporters.
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Technical Analysis
We are in a symmetrical triangle, sitting just below the 50 Day EMA. This of course does provide a little bit of a ceiling at this point in time, and if we can break above the 50 Day EMA then I think it opens up the possibility of the DAX going to the €24,600 level again. On the other hand, if we were to break down from here, perhaps breaking below the €23,600 level, it’s possible that it could send the market down to the €23,250 level. Furthermore, I would point out that you need to be very cautious at this point, because of the 4 central banks that are meeting this week, and of course any statements or quite frankly, fear that they comes out of those meetings. If we start to see signs of the global economy cracking, then the DAX will be one of the places we start to see selling.
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