My previous BTC/USD signal last Thursday may have produced a losing long trade from the initial rejection of $110,762.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades must be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $111,712, $110,762, or $110,054.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $112,533, $113,220, or $114,814.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
In my recent BTC/USD forecast last Thursday, I thought that the technical picture was looking more bearish, with the price looking heavy and likely to break down below the pivotal point at $111,332, although I was concerned that there was just too much support below that level to make a meaningful fall lower possible any time soon.
I was correct and overly pessimistic as the price got all the way below $109,000 quite quickly that day once the bearish breakdown got underway.
The technical picture has now become more bullish, as risky assets are broadly rising against the US Dollar, and this scenario tends to also produce a rise in Bitcoin, which is far more of a risk asset than a haven. So, we still see a relative weakness in Bitcoin, but a trend that can cause it rise high, albeit without much momentum or conviction probably.
The price action seems to have printed a new higher support level at $111,712 and recent hours have seen the price action clearly base at this level. If it continues to hold, a bullish breakout is inevitable. However, the two resistance levels not far above the current price look likely to stop much of a further advance, so I will only be happy to take a long trade above $113,220 where the price has some room to rise.
Failures and bearish reversals at $112,533 or $113,220 could make good short trades for swing traders.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding either Bitcoin or the US Dollar.
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