My previous AUD/USD signal on 29th July was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
Risk 0.25%
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6554 or $0.6569.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6522 or $0.6500.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast just over one month ago, I wrote that this currency pair was looking likely to fall to $0.6500 on US Dollar strength, and that this spot could be an excellent place to enter a long trade following a bullish bounce there.
This was a good and accurate call, which might have been exploited by a scalper using the hourly doji candlestick which made a low just below the $0.6500 level.
The technical picture today is a bit different, but overall, the key takeaway about today’s Forex market is – it is quiet, with little happening or likely to happen. The US is on holiday today, so the market will probably get even quieter around the time when New York would usually open, as London’s volume tends to drop off about then.
The US Dollar is in a long-term bearish trend, so bulls might marginally have the upper hand here. There has been a more recent break of resistance than support, which is a minor bullish sign.
It seems that the price is likely to just continue consolidating today below the resistance at $0.6553.
So, I see the best approach to trading this currency pair today as looking for a short scalp at that level, or a long scalp from $0.6522 (or, less likely, from $0.6500 which would probably be the most solid level of all).
As the summer’s thin liquidity will be ending today, we could see volatility starting to hit as soon as the Tokyo session starts for 2nd September.
There is nothing of high importance scheduled today concerning either the AUD or the USD. It is a public holiday today in the USA.
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