- The Australian dollar has bounced a bit from the crucial 0.6550 level on Monday, showing signs of resiliency.
- This is an area that’s been important more than one time, and therefore it does make a certain amount of sense that there would be a bit of a reaction in this area, which has been the case multiple times.
- Furthermore, we also have a lot of technical analysis things going on at the same time, and as a result I expect a lot of noise.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for this market is of course in a state of flux at the moment, as we have seen a bounce from the crucial 0.6550 level, and by extension, the 50 Day EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. This is particularly true at the moment, due to the 50 Day EMA being relatively flat, suggesting that we are in the midst of a larger consolidation in general.
The size of the candlestick and the stubbornness of the Australian dollar is of course noted at the moment, but if we can break above the 0.66 level, it’s likely that the Australian dollar could go looking to the 0.6650 level, and then by extension after that the 0.67 level. Alternatively, if the market were to break down below the bottom of the hammer from the Friday session, then we could drop toward the 200 Day EMA, near the 0.6485 level. Anything below could bring in significant selling, and I anticipate that it’s likely that the US dollar would continue to strengthen if that in fact is the case.
Remember, the Australian dollar was one of the worst performers against the US dollar, even as it was rising. Because of this, if the US dollar suddenly starts to strengthen again, the Australian dollar will be particularly vulnerable to any significant amount of US dollar strength and thereby, probably sell off quicker than many of the other major currencies.
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