- You can see that crude oil has in fact found itself to be a bit negative during the trading session here on Friday as we see a lot of noise overall.
- The biggest thing that I look at in this environment is the $65 level being important support and resistance multiple times.
- So, with that, I've got a situation where it's not until we break well above there that I'm comfortable buying with any type of size.
In the meantime, I suspect we probably go sideways a bit and try to determine whether or not we are forming a base. Keep in mind that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are meeting. So, you never know, there could be a headline coming out that may help or hurt the oil markets. But I suspect the fact that Putin and Trump are meeting means that they are at least trying to come to some type of an agreement involving Ukraine.
On Peace, Now What?
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If that starts to lead to peace, it might actually help the oil market because it takes a lot of pressure out of the fear trade. And although Russia has a lot of sanctions, they also are pumping oil out wildly. The question is now; do we have a scenario where global trade starts to pick up again? I don't know. It'll be interesting to see. But if the federal reserve cuts rates, that could help lift the risk appetite out there. And if that in fact happens, then we might have a situation where people jump into oil on the premise that we will have a strengthening economy. Either way, short term rallies probably likely, but I'm not truly interested until we can at least clear the $65 level on a daily close.
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