- The US dollar has been bullish initially against the Mexican peso but gave back the gains as we hit the 18.80 MXN level.
- This is a market that’s been in a downtrend for quite some time, so it’s not a huge surprise to see this market give back those gains.
- If we do in fact break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then we could go looking at the 18.50 MXN level again, but keep in mind that the Wednesday session features the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, so that it is going to be a major factor in where we go next.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for this pair is obviously very negative, and it’s worth noting that the interest rate differential between the 2 currencies certainly favors the Mexican peso. The 19 MXN level is worth paying close attention to as it is sitting just above the crucial 50 Day EMA, and of course it is a large, round, psychologically significant level. This is a market that runs a little inverse, meaning that the US dollar actually falls when the US economy does well, as Mexico is the biggest exporter to the US. This is the thing that makes things different, but in the end – I like trading with the swap.
If we were to break above the 19 level, then the USD/MXN pair continue to climb, but this isn’t something that I expect to see happen very easily. The Federal Reserve could throw a wrench into the situation, but I suspect that they won’t want to upset the markets overall. On a break below the 18.40 level, it is likely that we are heading to the 18 MXN level, an area that has been important more than once. Regardless, this is a market that should get some answers in the next day or so.
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