- As you can see, the gold market has gone back and forth during the bulk of the trading session here on Tuesday.
- We are sitting just below the 50 day EMA.
- If we can break above the 50 day EMA, I think that's a very bullish sign.
We formed an inverted hammer during the Monday session. But I think the biggest problem we have here is the fact that it's the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday that the market is waiting for. In other words, we don't really have anywhere to be, at least not until we get past that. Once we get past the press conference, the interest rate statement, and of course the decision, then gold might be able to move. Now the Federal Reserve is not expected to cut rates anytime soon.
Statement Tone Will Matter
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But the question will be about the tone of the statement. And of course, any questions that Jerome Powell answers during the press conference recently over the last couple of months, have seen gold bounce around between the $3,200 level at the bottom and the $3,500 level on the top. are essentially right here in the middle of the market, roughly, maybe a little bit below the middle.
So, we're close enough to fair value. think it does make a certain amount of sense that we are just simply going to grind away to the side. If we break down below $3,200, then it's likely that we could go look into the 200 day EMA, which is sitting just above the $3,000 level. If we break above the $3,500 level, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $3,800 level based on the measured move of consolidation. All things being equal, this is a market that I am bullish in over the longer term, but right now it's just grinding away, waiting for some reason to move.
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