Potential signal:
- I’d be a buyer of this pair right here, right now.
- I would have a stop loss near the 1.1033 level, and moved to break even at the 1.12 level.
- In fact, I may even add there and aim for the 1.14 level for a longer term trade.
During the trading session on Wednesday, we have seen the British pound fall initially during the day, only to find buyers below the crucial 1.11 CHF level. The 50 Day EMA is going sideways and offering a bit of a magnet for price, as we continue to consolidate overall. You should keep in mind that the 200 Day EMA sits near the 1.12 CHF level and is currently offering a bit of resistance.
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Risk Appetite
Risk appetite at the moment seems to be highly influential on this pair, which makes a sense considering that the Swiss National Bank is ultra easy with its monetary policy, and we continue to see a lot of questions asked about whether or not the Swiss could ever tighten monetary policy going forward. If they do, they will be anywhere near the Bank of England, so I think that is what’s a major driver of this price action. Ultimately, if we get more risk appetite out there, then this pair should go higher. If we can break above the 1.12 level, I think this is a situation where traders will continue to pile into this pair, taking advantage of the interest rate swap and perhaps looking as high as the 1.14 CHF level.
On a pullback, I think you need to look at the 1.10 level as a major support level, but really at this point in time it doesn’t look like the markets ready to break down, and we are simply working off some of the excess froth from the bounce that we have been going through over the last couple of months. Ultimately, I think this is a pair that did bottom, and now we will eventually find some reason to go higher, but we just don’t have that at the moment. I recognize that it would be very noisy and choppy along the way, but eventually we will have to come to terms with buying pressure.
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