- The US dollar has been somewhat positive in the early hours of Friday against the Mexican peso. And then basically just sat there.
- We are sitting just below the crucial 200 day EMA and that of course will attract a lot of attention. So, it'll be interesting to see if we can break back above the 200 day EMA, which would open up the possibility of a move to the 20 pesos level, that's an area where you also have the 50 day ad. So, I think that EMA could be a bit of a problem as well. If we break above there, then the U S dollar almost certainly will continue to go much higher.
On a Break Lower from Here
If we turn around and break down below the bottom of the couple of candlesticks from this past week, then I think it opens up the dollar dropping down to the 19 pesos level keep in mind that the market has looked at the area between 20 pesos and 21 pesos as a major barrier in the past so I find it interesting that we are Falling from there again if trade tensions start to abate that should make the Mexican peso much more attractive as traders will continue to look for Mexican exports to pick up going into the U.S. If we do, of course, see tariffs really stick here, then you could have the dollar climbing against the peso again. The interest rate differential favors a move to the downside. So that is something that you should keep in the back of your mind, and therefore, shorting is easier over the longer term, but we need a little bit of momentum or exhaustion to get truly confident in doing so. In other words, we are simply waiting at the moment.
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