The US Dollar seems to have bottomed out, which has helped the price here top out and begin to move lower. The first major test for bears will be the support level at $1.1280.
My previous EUR/USD signal on 14th May was not triggered as there was no bearish price action rejecting the resistance level at $1.1241 which was reached that day.
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Today’s EUR/USD Signals
- Risk 0.75%.
- Trades must be entered before 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Idea
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1430.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1280, $1.1227, or $1.1165.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD analysis about a week ago, I thought that the EUR/USD currency pair was likely to be bearish over the short term, and might fall as lower as $1.1063, or at least $1.1140.
I was correct about the best trade opportunity of that day being on the short side, but it took a few more days before the price even got back to $1.1140 before rising again to reach new highs.
The picture has been more bullish here in recent days, but recent hours have shown a clear topping out chart patterns based on an unmarked area of resistance which seems centred on the half number at $1.1350. The price is now falling after completing this bearish turn and will logically now head for the support level at $1.1280, although that support might kick in as high as $1.1290. How the price reacts in this supportive area is likely to be key to what happens here today.
I suspect that this supportive area will hold, so a long scalp from a bounce there will probably be today’s best short-term trading opportunity.
Regarding the Euro, there will be releases today of Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI data in Germany and France. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI data in the USA.
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