- The US dollar has rallied rather significantly during the trading session against the Mexican peso, gaining just shy of 3%.
- This is not a huge surprise, considering that the US dollar had a fairly strong day against most currencies.
- The Mexican peso is going to suffer at the hands of the overall US dollar positive bias.
- The market has bounced from the 19.9 Mexican peso level, an area that has been important multiple times over the last several months.
So, I think really at this point in time, what the chart is telling us is that the market is not ready to break out of this range. Granted, Mexico did not get any more tariffs than the original announcement, unlike many other countries. So, with that being the case, I do think that there is a world in which the Mexican peso strengthens, but probably not until a lot of uncertainty disappears from the overall financial markets in general. After all, we start to see the global economy slow down, then major exporters like Mexico will suffer at the hands of this.
That being said though, we also see the US dollar strengthening and that generally means that there is a run to safety. Again, this is not very good for Mexico itself. This is not necessarily a tariff argument at the moment. I think it's more like a global risk appetite argument.
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Middle of the Range
We are basically in the middle of the overall range that we have been in since November of last year. So, I think we're basically where we need to be. And I would not expect big moves in either direction. That being said, if we saw a daily close above the 21 Mexican peso level, that could kick off a major rally in the greenback. Conversely, if we break down below the 200 day EMA, right around the 19.72 Mexican peso level. That could see the dollar sell off quite drastically, and we could see this pair drop to the 19 Mexican peso level rather quickly.
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