- During the trading session on Tuesday, we have seen the US dollar plunged against the Swiss franc, which has firmly put in the crosshairs of traders a lower US dollar value against the Swiss franc.
- This is despite the fact that the Swiss are likely to cut rates again.
- I think a lot of this has to do with the risk appetite profile of the global markets at the moment, not necessarily anything to do with the US dollar itself. After all, a lot of money will go running to the Swiss franc when people were concerned, and we have seen several CHF denominated pairs fall across the Forex world.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for the USD/CHF is quite dire at the moment, and it now looks as if we are going to try to break down below the 0.8750 level. Breaking below that level could really start to see the Swiss franc strengthening, but I would also point out that on Thursday we have an interest rate decision coming from the Swiss National Bank, and if they sound like they are going to continue to cut interest rates, it’ll be interesting to see the reaction. After all, the Swiss franc is considered to be a safety currency, but at the same time, if they are going to continue rates, any good news at all will send the Swiss franc reeling.
If we were to turn around and rally from here, it’s not until we break above the 0.89 level that I’d be convinced that the balance is viable for the longer term. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of choppiness, but I also recognize that we had recently peaked at the crucial 0.92 level, an area that’s been important multiple times so it’s not a huge surprise to see this action for longer-term traders at least.
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