Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 76,635.
- Add a stop-loss at 85,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 85,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 76,635.
Bitcoin price held steady above $80,000 after the US released encouraging consumer inflation data. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 83,000, up from the year-to-date low of 76,635. It remains significantly below the year-to-date high of 109,365.
Bitcoin has been under pressure in the past few days as demand from investors waned. Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to experience significant outflows in the past few days. They have experienced outflows in the last five consecutive weeks, shedding over $5.2 billion in assets.
This trend is a sign that demand has waned as many investors remained in the sidelines waiting for the next moves.
Bitcoin wavered after the US published encouraging inflation data. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped from 3.0% in January to 2.8% in February. Core inflation dropped from 3.3% to 3.1%, the lowest level in years.
Inflation data have an impact on the prices of Bitcoin because they impact the actions of the Federal Reserve. In most cases, the Fed typically slashes interest rates when inflation is falling in a bid to stimulate spending.
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This time might be different because all signs show that inflation will tick up in the next few months because of Donald Trump’s tariffs. For example, a 25% tariff on goods imported vehicles from Mexico and Canada will be passed on to consumers.
The next key macro catalyst for the BTC/USD pair will be the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Analysts expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the upcoming meeting and provide the roadmap of when to start cutting rates.
BTC/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has been in a steep downtrend in the past few days. It has moved from a high of 109,366 in January to 82,000 today. This price is between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.
The pair has formed a death cross pattern as the 200-day and 50-day Weighted Moving Averages (WMA) crossed each other. Therefore, the pair will likely resume the bearish downtrend and retest the next key support at 76,635. A break below that level will signal more downside, potentially to 70,000.
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