- In my daily analysis of commodities, the gold market is almost always one of the first places I run to.
- Ultimately, the market has been very strong for quite some time, and the fact that we broke above the $2800 level of course is telling.
- All things being equal, this is a market that I think will continue to look at the gold market for safety as there are massive threats out there that Donald Trump is going to put a tariff of 25% on both Canada and Mexico. If he does, that will turbocharge this market as people try to get a grip on safety.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for gold is very strong obviously, and I think that will continue to be the case going forward. Short-term pullbacks, I do believe that a large portion of traders would be willing to come out and start buying gold again. However, a lot of this is going to come down to Donald Trump, so therefore the next couple of days could be very noisy.
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It’s worth noting that the $2800 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people would be paying close attention to and so-called “market memory” could come into the picture and offer support at that $2800 level. Even if we broke down below there, I see support at multiple places, including the $2750 level, and then again at the $2700 level which is also attracting the 50 Day EMA.
While the US dollar continues to strengthen, people believe that gold cannot go higher. This is obviously incorrect as we have seen multiple times in the last year or so, and my email box is consistently flooded with people not understanding this. Do not get it wrong: both gold and the United States dollar went higher during most of the 1980s. This is a myth that should be ignored at all costs. It comes down to WHY both of these assets rising. At this point, it has more to do with fear mixed in with economic strength in America.
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