My previous EUR/USD signal on 12th February was not triggered, as there was no bearish price action at the resistance levels when they were reached.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm London time
Short Trade Idea
- Short trade entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0442, $1.0467, or $1.0489.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long trade entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0379, $1.0331, or $1.0271.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD analysis just over one week ago, I wrote that the EUR/USD currency pair was looking choppy and likely to trade between $1.0338 and $1.0405.
This was not a good call, as the price made a significant bullish breakout from this range later that day.
There is no long-term trend in this currency pair, or in the US Dollar. The shorter-term trends are bullish for the EUR/USD and bearish for the USD.
The last few days have seen lower and lower resistance levels being printed. This is a bearish sign, but as we hit the London open today the price found a bid. At this time, it seems impossible to forecast today’s direction.
The resistance level directly overhead at $1.0442 looks likely to be pivotal, so if the price gets established above that level relatively early in the London session, day traders might look for long trade entries as it would invalidate the stairstep bearish trend which we have seen dominate since last Friday.
If the price tests $1.0442 and fails to break above it, it will eventually start to head down towards the $1.0400 area and possibly lower, so day traders could attempt a short trade if this scenario plays out.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the Euro. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of US Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm.
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