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Coffee Weekly Forecast: Record Values as Speculative Highs Show Their Power

By Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

Are there any speculative sellers of Coffee Arabica left. The commodity went into this weekend near the 378.62 price. Coffee Arabica went above the 381.00 value momentarily. Having started the week with a high price around the 348.00 level obviously wasn’t enough for speculative buyers who continued to climb into the commodity as the week progressed.

Coffee Weekly Forecast - 03/02: Speculative Highs (Chart)

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Closing within sight of the record highs in Coffee Arabica remains a signal that should be given respect by anyone considering the temptation to be a seller – they should reconsider this gambling instinct for the moment.

The bullish trend of Coffee Arabica has not relented. The price of the commodity was near 185.00 this time last year. The price of Coffee Arabica has now officially more than doubled in the past year. Inflation? The ability of Coffee Arabica to produce more buying has crushed many speculators and last week was no different.

Price Velocity in Coffee Arabica

On Tuesday of this past week Coffee Arabica was showing signs of more buying, and by Wednesday after the record high values of 353.00 showed they could be sustained more buying erupted. By late Wednesday the price of Coffee Arabica was within sight of 370.00, and when this ratio was penetrated on early Thursday more buying was demonstrated.

A lack of a serious downturn after record prices continue to be produced should make people contemplating selling very cautious. The record values in Coffee Arabica should not be treated like a one way avenue upwards, but debating this notion does have merit. The price of Coffee Arabica technically has been rather breathtaking. Day traders will find it difficult to trade Coffee Arabica because of leverage and timeframes which do produce volatile price swings as the commodity is being traded, but large players in Coffee Arabica do appear ready to remain buyers.

Coffee Arabica and Contemplation of What’s Next

Having accomplished new highs and produced the ability to challenge the 380.00 level late last week clearly indicates a strong level of speculative zeal in the commodity. Saying the price of Coffee Arabica should be lower is starting to sound incorrect. While logic tells us the price of the commodity is wildly high, it appears that large players in the commodity remain rather tranquil and continue to buy apex levels.

  • Betting against the move higher may entice a few speculators but these people seem to be disappearing.
  • Yes, at some point supply and demand will change in Coffee Arabica and a lowering of the price is likely to happen, but why bet against the trend upwards.
  • Day traders need to remain very careful if they are attempting to speculate on Coffee Arabica, simply put wagering in the commodity may make a person feel strong but the volatility may be too much for traders with limited funds.

Coffee Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for Coffee is 355.00 to 393.00

The further the price of Coffee Arabica rises it starts to feel as if the higher values are becoming accepted and ready to solidify long-term. Betting against the bullish trend which started in October of 2023 when the commodity was near 140.00 USD looks to be completely wrong. Speculators are warned that the higher prices being made in Coffee Arabica have not shown signs of a violent downturn, the lack of volatile spikes lower in commodities often means large players are comfortable with existing ratios.

Looking for more upside still feels dangerous, but if a trader has solid risk taking tactics including stop loss orders, they may feel like they want to ride this trend as long as it lasts. Trading Coffee Arabica has entered the territory of dreams regarding its value, but the price in the market is real and if large players continue to pursue the next targets will be 380.00, 390.00 and perhaps the goal of seeing 400.00 will not feel absurd. Price action needs to be watched in Coffee Arabica and volatility if and when it does breakout could be violent.

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Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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