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BTC/USD Forex Signal: Bounce Following Drop to 3-Month Low

By Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

Today’s BTC/USD Signals

Risk 0.50% per trade.

Trades must be entered prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.

BTC/USD Signal Today 03/02: Bounce Following Drop (graph)

Long Trade Ideas

  • Go long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $95,362, $93,010, $91,250.

  • Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

Short Trade Ideas

  • Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $95,560 or $99,298.

  • Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.

  • Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.

  • Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.

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The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.

BTC/USD Analysis

I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast on 30th January that the surface bullishness was deceptive due to the symmetrical bearish price channel which was dominating the price action. I was looking for a short trade from a bearish rejection of $105,569.

This was an excellent call as the price continued to top out before falling very sharply, although the significant breakdown below the descending price channel was really fuelled by President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, as well as his threat of further tariffs against the European Union and the BRICS nations. This has created a risk-off environment which is sinking risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, and with the imposition of the first round of tariffs over the past weekend, markets have opened this week with big losses for risk assets and big gains for the US Dollar most of these assets are priced in.

A few hours ago, markets opened for the week and Bitcoin fell to a new 3-week low not far from $90,000. This is a big drop considering it was only 1 week ago that the price was close to making a new record high.

However, the past few hours have seen the price rebound quite strongly from the day’s low, which suggests that we may not be seeing fresh lows soon.

The short-term price action is now facing resistance at $95,560 and a short trade there looks reasonably attractive, as this tariff theme will run for some time as it has further to play out. This will probably lead to a weak environment for Bitcoin, despite the Trump administration’s friendly attitude towards cryptocurrency.

So, I am ready to take a short trade from a bearish reversal at either $95,560 or (even better due to its confluence with the big round number at $100,000) $99,298.

There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.

Ready to trade our free Forex signals on Bitcoin? Here’s our list of the best MT4 crypto brokers worth reviewing.

Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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