- In my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, the USD/PHP market has captured my attention, as we are hanging around just above the 50 Day EMA.
- The 50 Day EMA of course is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to, so that might have caused a little bit of technical support. However, there’s also another thing that needs to be considered, and that is that the US dollar has recovered quite nicely. It’s not only against the Philippine peso that you can see this, but against pretty much anything in Asia.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is rather strong, but it’s obvious that we had a major resistance barrier near the 59 PHP level and that should still be a factor in this market. However, I do think that we are likely to go looking toward that area, and if we can break above the 59 PHP level on a daily close, it’s possible that we could go higher. In fact, if we can break above the 5.915 level, then I think that buyers will flood this market.
Keep in mind that this is a market that if we can break down below the 50 Day EMA, then it’s likely that we will go looking to the 200 Day EMA, near the 57.75 PHP region. The 200 Day EMA of course will be an indicator that a lot of people are waiting for. If we break down below the 200 Day EMA, then I think this is a situation where you are looking for “cheap US dollars.” Ultimately, this is a market that is a referendum on Asia overall, as, of course, The Philippines is a major player in the emerging market part of Asia.
I do think that you will continue to see a lot of volatility but watch how the US dollar behaves against the Japanese yen, since it can give you little bit of a “heads up” as to where we might be going in the USD/PHP pair as well.
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