- During my daily analysis of exotic currency pairs, it’s worth noting that the USD/MXN pair has been very strong, as interest rates in America continue to climb.
- Furthermore, we also have to keep an eye on Mexico, which has its own issues, and therefore I think you have to assume that this is a market that will continue to go looking to the 21 MXN level.
The 21 MXN level of course is a major resistance barrier that has been important multiple times over the years, and therefore I think you have to assume it will continue to matter. If for some reason we were to break above there, it’s probably going to be a massive problem for the peso.
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Next week
I think next week will be interesting in the USD/MXN pair, because you then have Donald Trump as president, and we could start to see a lot of executive orders come into play. The border of course is going to continue to be a major issue, though I would expect a lot of tension between Washington and Mexico City on this issue. Quite frankly, the Mexicans do not want to close the border, and are perfectly happy with letting people cross, but at the same time it Donald Trump has made this is number one issue. Americans voted to close the border, so quite frankly he knows that if he doesn’t do it, his administration will be considered a failure.
This only ends up one way, but the question comes down to not whether or not Mexico has to deal with issues and perhaps even tariffs, but how bad will they be? It is possible that they won’t be as bad as some people fear, and quite frankly that would jive well with the way Donald Trump tends to do business, as he “shoots for the stars, and it settles on the moon” as the expression goes.
To the downside, the 20 MXN level is considered to be support, and between now and next week, I don’t see this market breaking out of this range, unless of course Donald Trump says something in public that gives us a bit of a “heads up” as to how things are going to turn out.
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