- The US dollar continues to go back and forth against the rupee near the 86.60 level as the market consolidates after a huge run higher.
- There have been a lot of problems in India as of late, not the least of which of course would be inflation.
It looks like the 87 level is going to form a bit of a ceiling, and perhaps buyers of the dollar against the rupee are gauging whether or not they are going to continue to go higher or if they are just simply going to digest the gains. Short term pullbacks at this point in time could open up a move down to the 86 level.
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With the US dollar being as strong as it has been, it's really difficult to imagine whether or not the market would suddenly turn against the greenback and run to the rupee. I think the best case scenario for the rupee at this point in time is just to simply go sideways. If the US dollar were to break above the 87 level, that could open up a move to the 87.50 level, and possibly even beyond. As far as selling this pair is concerned, I don't have any interest because quite frankly, I don't want to sell the US dollar against anything, let alone emerging market currencies.
A Lot of Issues in India
Inflation in India, foreign capital outflows, and even higher oil prices are all starting to factor into this market as the Indian economy is almost certainly going to feel some pressure here. I am a buyer of dips when it comes to the dollar against the rupee. This is a market that has been bullish for quite some time, and until there is a reason to sell the USD against bigger currencies, there is almost no chance for the emerging markets like this one.
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