EUR/USD Forecast: Overhead Resistance

• During my daily analysis on Monday, the first thing that captures my attention is the fact that the US dollar has been beaten up quite significantly by multiple currencies.
• At this point I think you have a situation where the relief rally and currencies like the euro will have come close to running their course.
• After all, we have a market that’s in a downtrend for reason, and we could find even more reasons by the time we get through this week.

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Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve meets on Wednesday and then releases its interest rate statement, while the European Central Bank releases its announcement on Thursday. In other words, I expect this pair to be extraordinarily volatile, but at the end of the day we already know that the Europeans are going to be cutting rates, but the Federal Reserve is expected to hold. The question at this point will be what happens at the press conferences for both of those central banks and their outlook. I think ultimately, the US dollar is probably the “default winner”, as we continue to see more inflows into the United States, and also at the same time see the European union look very sluggish, only slight signs of hope coming out of Germany as far as growth is concerned.

Ultimately, we have been in a downtrend for a while, and therefore we have to pay close attention to the idea that we are still suffering at the hands of a lot of “risk off behavior” in general, and therefore I think we’ve got a situation where this rally could end up being a nice selling opportunity, and I think a lot of people will be paying close attention to it. Underneath, the 1.03 level is an area that I would anticipate seeing a lot of support, and I do think that we could eventually revisit that area.

On the other hand, if we were to break to the upside, the 1.06 level is a major area of resistance, and if we were to break above there, then we could see an overall change in the attitude, but until we get above the 1.06 level on a daily close, I’m not necessarily convinced by any euro strength.

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