- During my analysis of major currency pairs, the EUR/USD pair has captured my attention as we have seen a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately the market has ended up being somewhat neutral, and this is not a huge surprise, considering that the euro has no real business strengthening against the US dollar.
- After all, the market is likely to continue to be focusing on the fact that the interest rate situation in the United States continues to be much stronger than that of the European Union, and of course the EU itself is a bit of a disaster.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this pair is rather negative, and it probably will remain so. The neutral candlestick itself isn’t such a big deal, but it’s the fact that it has formed near the 50 Day EMA, so I think that if we break down below the lows of the trading session on Wednesday, it’s very likely that the euro will try to get down to the 1.03 level underneath. The 1.03 level underneath of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of people will be watching. It’s an area that has seen a lot of buying pressure, so I think a revisit of that area makes quite a bit of sense.
However, if we were to break above the 1.05 level, then we have a lot of noise all the way to the 1.06 level. It’s at the 1.06 level that if the euro can overcome that region, I think it finally has proven itself. Ultimately, I think that’s a tall order, and therefore I’m looking for opportunities to fade the euro on signs of exhaustion and today may very well have been that session on Wednesday. If we break down, I will not hesitate to start shorting this pair for a short-term trade. If we can get below the 1.02 level, the euro will end up visiting parity quicker than most people anticipate.
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