- During my daily analysis of the major currency pairs, the first thing that I look to is the EUR/USD pair, as we have plunged below the 1.02 level during the trading session.
- That being said, I do think that a bounce is very likely, just due to the fact that we are oversold.
- However, I do not expect this to be a situation where you can just simply short the market and forget about it, because I believe that the volatility will probably only pick up, and therefore it makes the ability to be nimble crucial when it comes to this currency pair.
Technical Analysis
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The technical analysis for this EUR/USD pair is extraordinarily dour, but the word “oversold” cannot be ignored. Ultimately, I think that the euro continues to fall in probably goes looking to the parity level given enough time, but it’s a bit difficult to jump into this market and start shorting heavily. Any bounce at this point in time would look very much like a selling opportunity at the first signs of exhaustion. This is a market that I have no interest in buying, and with that being the case I think you have to look at this as a scenario where we are looking at the 1.03 level as a potential ceiling, and then after that the 1.0450 level. Either one of those areas could be excellent shorting opportunities if we show signs of exhaustion.
On the other hand, if we simply fall from here, then I think it’s probably going to be a move to the parity level rather quickly. The parity level obviously will attract a lot of attention, but at the end of the day we had been there before, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where a lot of people will simply take profit in that area as well. I have no scenario in which I’m willing to buy the euro at this point, at least not with the 10 year yield in America being as high as it is.
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