- The US dollar rallied pretty significantly during the trading session on Monday as traders got back to work and continued the trend of dollar positivity.
- The 0.89 level underneath continues to offer a significant amount of support for the US dollar against the Swiss franc.
- So, I think you've got a situation where it does make a certain amount of sense that buyers come in and look at these dips as offering cheap US dollars.
If we were to break down below the 0.89 level, then it's possible that we could go down to the 50 day EMA underneath, looking for more technical support. On the upside, we have the 0.90 level offering a bit of resistance and clearing that opens up the possibility of a move to the 0.9150 level.
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Noise is to be Expected Here
In general, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy, but I do think it favors the upside just due to the interest rate differential, if nothing else. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that traders will continue to look at this through the prism of the interest rate differential and the fact that Switzerland is so heavily anchored to the European Union while the US economy, of course, is humming along.
The EU economy is very anemic at the moment, and with the Swiss sending 85% of their exports into the EU. This does not bode well, and therefore I think it all ties together for a much higher US dollar before it's all said and done. Remember, it was just a few sessions back where the Swiss National Bank cut by 50 basis points. That's a sign of panic. They may end up going negative as far as interest rates are concerned before it's all said and done. I continue to buy dips.
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