My previous BTC/USD signal on 21st November was not triggered, as none of the key levels which I had identified were reached that day.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50% per trade.
- Trades may only be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Tuesday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $95,433, $94,735, or $93,184.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Shor entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $96,994 or $100,000.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
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BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast almost two weeks ago that the outlook was very bullish, expecting that the price of Bitcoin would likely reach $100,000 and then dip on profit taking. I was correct about the profit taking but Bitcoin never quite reached $100,000 and still has not.
The price is continuing to consolidate below $100,000 while it makes up its mind to either make a deeper bearish retracement than we have seen so far, or to go on and break out beyond $100,000 – if we do see the breakout eventually, how high the price could go is an open guess. It will certainly attract trend and momentum traders on the long side in this scenario.
Alternatively, the price action is already looking more bearish within the current consolidation, so I think it is quite likely to fall to at least the nearest support level at $95,433.
I will enter a new long trade here only if we get a daily (New York) close above $100,000. Waiting for this to happen first will probably help keep traders wanting to go long out of trouble.
In the unlikely event that the price touches $100,000 today, a short scalp from that level could be a good idea, as I strongly believe it will cause profit taking.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of ISM Manufacturing PMI data at 3pm London time.
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