- During my daily analysis of exotic currencies, the USD/RUB currency pair has caught my attention as we have now broken above the psychologically important 100 RUB level.
- This obviously will capture a lot of attention, and it’s probably worth noting that there are a lot of geopolitical things going on with the Ukrainian war at the same time that could send this market much higher.
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This is a bit of a “one-two punch”, as we have 2 things going on at the same time. With NATO now allowing Ukrainians to fire NATO missiles deep into Russia, this could expand the war, which of course has people a bit concerned about investing in Russia. Furthermore, one would have to assume that it’s going to become even more difficult to put money to work in Russia for Westerners, so that means that demand for Russian Rubles will probably drop.
At the same time, we have the US dollar strengthening against almost everything, as interest rates in America continue to climb, and of course a lot of people are concerned about the global economy. Money is running to New York, not walking, and this of course hurts a lot of emerging market currency such as the Ruble. In general, this is a market that I think is doing everything it can to build up enough momentum to continue to go much higher.
Technical Analysis
For what it is worth, the 50 Day EMA is at the 95 RUB level and rising. That also happens to be an area that should offer a lot of support, so we have at least 5 RUB of support underneath and I think any pullback at this point in time will more likely than not offer a lot of support. For what it is worth, at the same time we have the Relative Strength Index sitting at roughly 65, meaning that it is not in an overbought condition. In other words, there are still people out there willing to get involved in start buying this pair yet again.
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