Gold Forecast: Stabilizes Near 50-Day EMA

• Gold was rather quiet during the trading session on Thursday, which of course is not a huge surprise considering that the futures markets would have had limited trading due to Thanksgiving holiday in the United States.
• We are currently hanging around the 50 day EMA, which of course is an indicator that a lot of traders pay close attention to and an indicator that could cause a lot of traders to go in both directions.

If we do fall from here, it's likely that the market could go looking to the uptrend line underneath, which would offer a certain amount of support in and of itself. After that, we have $2,500 offering support also. To the upside, the $2,700 level is a large round psychologically significant figure that has offered quite a bit of resistance.

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But I think at this point in time, a lot of this comes down to the geopolitical aspect of the trade more than anything else over the last couple of days. As Israel and Hezbollah, essentially Lebanon, came to a ceasefire, it does make a certain amount of sense that a little bit of a sigh of relief was put through the market. That being said, we still have to worry about Ukraine, and that's only getting worse. There are a lot of central banks around the world continuing to buy gold, including India, China, Russia, Indonesia, and a few others. So that does put a little bit of a bid in the market, but we are in an uptrend longer term anyway. So that in and of itself makes this interesting to me. It's interesting that we continue to hang around the 50 day EMA. And I do think that we continue to see a lot of choppiness.

Friday Might Be Thin Also

Keep in mind that Friday is essentially a holiday in the United States as well, although it will have more liquidity in the futures market on Friday than it did on Thursday. At the end of the day, we really don't get back to normal volumes until we get to the Monday session. That being said, it certainly looks like we are stabilizing and that's really all you can ask after a big sell-off like we had seen during the Monday session. At this point, I still think we are going to go looking to the $2,800 level and then possibly 3,000 over the longer term.

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