- The Euro is fairly close to the bottom of an overall consolidation area that we have been in for a while.
- At this point, we need to pay close attention to whether or not we can break down below that support level in the form of the 0.93 level.
- If we do, that could be a big deal. But right now, I think we're probably more likely than not going to continue to see sideways action.
However, it is worth noting that the market is essentially forming a little bit of a descending triangle, at least as things stand right now. So, it does at least lean to the downside, away from the Euro and into the Swiss franc, but that would be a major risk off signal as European traders will put their money into Switzerland when things are a little bit dicey.
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Ultimately, if we do rally from here, I would look for a short term trade only, not necessarily a longer term one. It is probably worth noting that the stochastic oscillator is reaching towards the bottom of the overall range where the indicator signals oversold. We aren't there yet, nor have we had the crossover you look for in the stochastic oscillator, but it is something worth paying attention to.
The 50 day EMA is sitting right around the 0.9415 level and dropping, so that could cause a little bit of resistance on any bounce. And at this point, I think you're just going back and forth, taking advantage of short-term trades. For example, if you are a day trader, this might be a really good pair for you to watch. In general, EUR/CHF is a pair that I watch to get a read on what the risk appetite is for European traders, as well as the global ones. All things being equal, this is a pair that could be a nice short-term set up occasionally, but if we do break out of the consolidation range that we have been in, then I will pay close attention.
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