- As I look at exotic currency pairs around the world, the USD/INR pair is one that I pay close attention to, as it has been in a massive uptrend for some time.
- That being said, it’s probably worth noting that we are stalling a bit on Friday, as we are hanging around the 84.13 Rupee level.
- A pullback from here does make a certain amount of sense, but I think there are plenty of buyers underneath that will continue to look at this through the prism of finding some type of value.
I believe that the 84 Rupee level is an area where we have seen a lot of resistance, and therefore I think you’ve got a situation where buyers would be looking to take advantage of so-called “market memory”, due to the fact that the area previously had been so resistant to upward pressure.
However, I think this remains more or less a “buy on the dips” scenario, especially as the 50 Day EMA is rapidly approaching that area as well.
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Continuation?
At this point, I do think that we are more likely than not to see some type of continuation, but it’s also worth noting that the Bank of India is highly instrumental in where this pair goes, because quite frankly the Americans don’t care about their interest rate with India. On the other hand, the rupee measured against the US dollar is how the Indian rupee is viewed around the world, and that has a major influence on Indian exports, but also the Indian domestic economy.
While the Bank of India is okay with a cheaper rupee, they don’t want it to happen to quickly, because it could stoke the massive amounts of inflation just waiting to happen. Because the central bank is so hands-on when it comes to this pair, I think you get a situation where you have to look at this through the prism of an uptrend, but more importantly than anything else, and very slow moving uptrend now that we have stretched this far.
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