USD/CHF Forecast: Threatens Resistance

• During my daily analysis of major currency pairs, the USD/CHF pair still garners quite a bit of attention, as it looks like it is trying to give us a signal as to where the US dollar may go longer term, or perhaps even more importantly, where the Swiss franc well.
• This is because of this pair does tend to move right along with all the other CHF related pairs, and therefore think you got a situation where if we break out to the upside, it’s very likely that we have a situation where it’s only a matter of time before we can by other pairs such as the GBP/CHF pair, the EUR/CHF pair, and so on.

Technical Analysis

The US dollar was somewhat noisy in the early hours on Thursday, as the Core Consumer Price Index number came out at 0.3% month over month, hotter than the expected 0.2%. This did throw the markets into a bit of chaos, but I do think that this also suggests that we are more likely than not going to see the Federal Reserve come into the picture as far as the psyche of trading is concerned, and therefore people may be stepping away from the idea of the Federal Reserve loosening rather quickly, and it may be more like a “controlled demolition” of interest rates.

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Because of this, I’m watching this area, because I do believe that if we break above the 0.8625 level, then it’s likely that we will continue to go higher. However, keep in mind that the 50 Day EMA is offering support while the 200 Day EMA, near the 0.8775 level, offer significant resistance. I think you move to that level does make a certain amount of sense, assuming that we get more upward momentum in the US dollar itself.

Keep in mind that the market is going to continue to look at this as a risk barometer type of situation, as the Swiss franc is one of the few currencies out there that is actually considered to be “safer” than the greenback. On short-term pullbacks, I think there should be a significant amount of support near the 0.8533 level.

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