- Dear my daily analysis of major currency pairs, the USD/CHF pair captures my attention due to the fact that it seems like we are hell-bent on continuing the overall consolidation that we had seen for some time.
- Therefore, I think you’ve got the look at this through the prism of a market that is trying to sort out whether or not we are going to turn around and rally again, or if we are going to break down significantly.
One of the biggest problems that we will have breaking down is that if the US dollar falls below the 0.84 level, it’s very likely going to be a situation where the Swiss National Bank will eventually get involved, because quite frankly they are one of the first ones to do such things. With this being the case, I think you have to look at this as a situation where if we break down below the 0.84 level significantly, we could be tempting the SNB to get involved and start selling off the Swiss franc.
This of course would be a major break down, and it would show that the world is essentially seen a lot of ugliness out there that people will be paying close attention to, as the Swiss franc is considered to be the “ultimate safety currency.” While the US dollar is considered to be a safety currency as well, the Swiss franc is one of the few that can match that.
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On the Upside
On the upside, we have the 0.8550 level to pay close attention to, as it is a major resistance barrier that has played out rather reliably over the last several weeks. Furthermore, we also have the 50 Day EMA in that area, so I think that would also add more technical resistance to this pair and make it even less likely to break out to the upside. However, if we were to do so, then it could be a major signal for FOMO traders to jump in and start buying.
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