- The West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil Market, or US oil, skyrocketed after initially falling during the trading session.
- I think at this point in time, we are in the midst of forming some type of major bottoming pattern and that of course is something worth paying close attention to.
- After all, the $66 level has been a major floor in the market for quite some time, at least two years, and I think that will continue to be something that you must pay attention to.
Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that a lot of questions will be asked about the tensions and the combat in Lebanon. So, with all of that being said, the Middle East could continue to be a bit of a tinderbox. Furthermore, you have the Russians and the Ukrainians fighting still, so it does make a certain amount of sense that oil can only fall so far. Adding more credence to the move is the fact that the JOLTS job openings number in the United States came out hotter than anticipated, so while PMI numbers are starting to shrink, the job openings are still pretty robust and that suggests that there could be a bit of demand coming into the picture. And then finally you have a potential port strike throughout the United States which would pretty much cut off imports.
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So, with that being said I think you've got a situation where we definitely favor the upside over the down but that doesn't necessarily mean that we break out right away. I think short-term pullbacks continue to be buying opportunities. Why wouldn’t necessarily go so far as to say that this is a “one-way trade”, certainly it seems like it’s going to take a lot of effort to finally break down below the $66 level, and through the bottom of the consolidation range that we have been in over the last couple of years. All things being equal, I think the risks still seem to the upside more than anything else right now.
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