- USD/INR pair has pulled back rather significantly.
- This is a pair that can be very quiet at times, as we have seen over the last month or so.
- However, it’s probably worth noting that there is a very small uptrend line that we have acknowledged near the 83.88 level, so whether or not anything has changed is completely open to interpretation at the moment.
FOMC Meeting
Keep in mind that there is a Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decision coming on Wednesday, as well as the press conference afterwards. I suspect that the press conference will give us an idea as to what the Federal Reserve is going to do over the next several months, which obviously will have a bit of a “knock on effect” in the USD/INR currency pair. However, it’s worth noting that the Bank of India also has a part to play in this as they do tend to get very involved in how the Indian rupee trades. In other words, they don’t necessarily let the currency get crushed, nor do they let the Rupee strengthen quite drastically either. They will more likely than not do whatever they can to keep stability in this market.
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Technical Analysis
I believe the technical analysis for this pair is still strong overall, as the market is still in the midst of forming some kind of an ascending triangle. There would obviously be a lot of noise around the Wednesday session due to the FOMC, but we also have the 50 Day EMA underneath and sitting near the 83.84 level, and then after that it looks like there is a certain amount of support near the 83.75 level as well. On the upside, if we were to break above the 84.10 level, I think that would be a sign that the US dollar is going to continue to strengthen against the rupee, perhaps in more or less a “risk off move” globally. Keep in mind, the US dollar is considered to be the world’s premier safety currency.
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