- As you can see, the natural gas markets initially tried to rally a bit only to turn around and show a certain amount of negativity as it looks like we are going to test the $2.50 level.
- The $200.50 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to, and that is an area that I think a lot of traders will see quite a bit of options barriers at as well.
- In general, you have to keep in mind that the natural gas market tends to rally this time of the year as temperatures in America are going to start dropping. And of course, demand will start to pick up.
Overall, this is a scenario that not only sees market memory at the $2.50 level, but we also see the 200 day EMA sitting underneath it that should offer support as well. On the other hand, if we turn around and take off to the upside, then we could see a market move that should go much higher, perhaps reaching the $2.80 level. This is a market that I think could be rather explosive, pardon the pun over the next several weeks.
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The alternative scenario
On the other hand, if we turn around and break down below the 200 day EMA, then it's possible that we could go down to the $2.30 level where we currently see the 50 day EMA. In general, I think this is a market that probably finds its way to the $3 level given enough time. And I am a buyer of this market on dips. Those positions that I'm buying though are small. They're not huge because I understand how much trouble there is in the natural gas market for those who get over levered. So with this, I remain bullish, but I also recognize that this is just a trade for this time of year. And then once we get into the middle of winter, I tend to dump it and just simply forget about it for a while.
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