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EUR/USD Analysis: Downward Stability Ahead of ECB Decisions

By Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
  • During yesterday's trading session. The US dollar rose after inflation in the United States exceeded expectations in August, as the important core inflation reading of the consumer price index reached 0.3% on a monthly basis, exceeding the consensus expectations of 0.2%.
  • As a result, the euro against the US dollar EUR/USD collapsed to the support level of 1.1000.
  • Technically it is the lowest in nearly a month.
  • Amidst a downward movement, the euro pairs will have an important date today with the European Central Bank announcing an update to its monetary policy decisions.

EUR/USD Analysis Today 12/9: Downward Stability (graph)

According to forex trading, the GBP/USD also fell to a three-week low of 1.3000 after the probability of a 50-basis-point US interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week fell to 15% from 29% before the US inflation release. The US dollar is trading strongly as the August US inflation report appears to have effectively ruled out the possibility of a significant interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month, says Matthew Ryan, analyst at global financial services firm Ebury. However, the US dollar is expected to see limited gains as the rest of the inflation report was a moderate reading. The annual core CPI rate is now approaching the Fed's target of 2.1% as of August.

According to economic data, the US core CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month in July, in line with forecaster expectations, as was the case with the annual inflation rate of 2.5%. Meanwhile, core inflation remained unchanged at 3.2% year-on-year. Overall, the inflation trend remains consistent with the Federal Reserve achieving its goal of bringing inflation sustainably to its target level, meaning a US interest rate cut next month is a certainty.

Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said: "Overall, US inflation appears to have been successfully tamed, but with housing inflation refusing to moderate as quickly as hoped, it hasn't been completely conquered. Under these circumstances, we expect the Fed to adopt a measured approach to cutting interest rates."

The cushion in US core inflation remains intact, at 0.5% y/y. Moreover, the Fed can live with this as most components of the inflation basket continue to see deflation. Overall, the muted response in the forex market is a testament to the Fed’s declining importance of inflation and the strength of the US dollar may be limited as a result, especially given the proximity of the Fed’s decision last week. Accordingly, according to analysts, "We believe that the US Federal Reserve will strike a dovish tone in its communications after the September meeting, indicating to the markets that the slowdown in the US Labor market has accelerated, and that the pace of aggressive cuts may be required to support it."

If this is the case, the US dollar may weaken.

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EUR/USD Technical analysis and forecast:

According to the performance on the daily chart, the Euro against the US Dollar EUR/USD is in the path of a recently formed downward channel. Technically, the bears' control over the trend will increase if the currency pair moves towards the support levels of 1.0955 and 1.0880, respectively, and at the latter level, some technical indicators will move towards strong oversold levels. On the other hand, and for the same period of time, the resistance of 1.1200 will remain the most important for the strength of bulls' control over the currency pair's direction again. In general, the Euro price will remain subject to signals from the European Central Bank today about the times of interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024. Decisively, the decision comes before the US Federal Reserve's announcement next week.

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Mahmoud Abdallah
About Mahmoud Abdallah
Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.
 

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