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ASX 200 Forecast: Bounces at The 50 Day EMA

By Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
  • The ASX 200 has stood out as an example of a potentially exciting technical analysis set up.
  • The market initially plunged toward the 50 Day EMA, but then turned around to show signs of life as it looks like we are trying to settle on forming a hammer.
  • The hammer of course is a candlestick that a lot of people pay attention to, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we would see traders look at this with a certain amount of interest.

ASX 200 Forecast Today - 05/09: EMA 50 Day Bounce (Chart)

That being said, if we were to break down below the bottom of the hammer, that would be a very negative turn of events, and could send this market plunging, perhaps dropping down to the AU$7800 level underneath. Below there, then we have a market move to the 200 Day EMA just waiting to happen, which is closer to the AU$7700 region.

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As goes New York, so goes Australia

Keep in mind that the US equity markets will have a major influence on risk appetite, and that in and of itself will have a major influence on the ASX 200. The ASX 200 is an index that is heavily influenced by global trade, so therefore we win the bigger indices such as the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ 100 start moving, it does have a direct influence on the ASX 200. Furthermore, you also have to keep in mind that Australia is heavily anchored to China, which just recently admitted lack of demand for crude oil, which suggest that the Chinese economy might be slowing. If that in fact is going to be the case, that is going to have a very detrimental effect on Australian equities overall.

It is because of this that the candlestick for the day is very interesting and could be a sign that traders are willing to step in and bind the ASX 200, but I don’t know that it’s a sign that we are suddenly going to take off to the upside. Quite frankly, it would not be surprising at all to see the AU$8100 level offer a bit of a ceiling yet again.

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Christopher Lewis
About Christopher Lewis
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
 

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