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USD/INR Analysis: Values Flourish Even as U.S Inflation Data Improves

By Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

The USD/INR has maintained the top of its price range the past handful of days, and even after yesterday’s inflation data from the U.S showed a downturn, the currency pair maintained higher ratios.

USD/INR Analysis Today - 15/08: Values Still Rise (Chart)

  • The old saying that you should not fight the trend has a lot of significance in the USD/INR currency pair.
  • As of this writing the currency pair is near the 83.9080 mark with fast changes of values being seen, but while sustaining the upper realms of its price range.
  • Even as many major currencies got stronger against the USD the past couple of days (and past month and a half) the USD/INR has not correlated to the broad Forex markets.

Traders of the USD/INR need to understand the currency pair is being controlled tightly by Indian government. While some may be tempted to consider the potential U.S Federal Reserve’s rate cuts that appear to be coming as impetus for bearish momentum in the USD/INR, again it must be stated that you should not fight the trend. Until the Indian government decides its wants the Indian Rupee to get stronger, it would be unwise to bet on bearish directions in the currency pair.

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Consistent New Highs in the USD/INR and Speculation

The ability of the USD/INR to consistently produce a strong bullish trend and produce new record highs is important. The USD/INR is sustaining price levels around 83.9000 and higher, and this is a sign that traders may be right if they are contemplating even higher levels for the currency pair. Traders should not get overly ambitious however. While the USD/INR touched a mark around the 83.98000 vicinity earlier this week and has shown a tendency to bounce higher from support levels, speculators should not bet blindly on upside.

The mark of 84.0000 does look enticing, but it must be remembered the Reserve Bank of India controls the levers in the USD/INR and they might not want the currency pair to hit this level quite yet. However, the trend upwards certainly looks attractive and until support levels prove to be vulnerable it is rather farfetched to believe the USD/INR is suddenly going to tumble lower.

Price Velocity and the USD/INR

What makes the USD/INR rather impressive is that its trading volume is increasing globally as India becomes a bigger economic player globally. The notion the Reserve Bank of India controls the currency pair tightly is intriguing because while a lot of trading is being done in the currency pair, the value of the India Rupee obviously has a high degree of oversight.

  • Price velocity in the USD/INR is a threat and traders need to understand the currency pair can move swiftly, meaning risk management for speculators is necessary.
  • Until the trend in the USD/INR stops moving upwards, the currency pair needs to be considered a buying opportunity when support levels are touched.

USD/INR Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 83.9200

Current Support: 83.89100

High Target: 83.9800

Low Target: 83.8760

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.
 

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