- I see that the US dollar has rallied again during the trading session on Tuesday against the Singapore dollar as we continue to recover.
- The market had recently pulled back to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, only to turn on and show signs of life.
- The 1.34 level continues to be an area that I think a lot of people pay close attention to, and it certainly has offered it quite a bit of support.
All things being equal, if we do rally from here, it's possible that we could go looking to the 200 day EMA, which is just below the 1.35 level. The 1.35 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. But the 200 day EMA is more or less flat. So, I think at that point it makes a certain amount of sense that we may not pay as much attention to it as we typically would. This is an indicator that needs a bit of momentum, something that we just don’t have on the daily charts at the moment.
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Retail Sales Numbers Surprises
The US dollar has been buoyed by the retail sales numbers coming out much hotter than anticipated, and therefore people are starting to bank on the idea that the Federal Reserve may stay tight for longer than expected. If that's going to be the case, then I think we have a scenario where the market continues to see, momentum shifts here and there. And I think a lot of this just comes down to Federal Reserve expectations more than anything else. In general, this is one safety currency against another. With that, the market continues to be in a situation where we are a little overextended, and now we need to see if there is more momentum coming into the picture. Keep in mind this pair does tend to move very slowly.
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