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USD/RUB Analysis: Pragmatic Speculators Prove Downside is Worthwhile

The USD/RUB touched the 86.4505 ratio in early trading this morning and then reversed higher, the downside momentum in the currency pair has been a worthwhile speculative bet for traders.

USD/RUB Analysis Today - 10/07: USD/RUB Downside (Chart)

  • The USD/RUB has traded lower incrementally since the first week of May when the 94.3400 level was challenged higher.
  • The past week saw the USD/RUB challenge the 89.0000 level, but resistance continued to be rather strong and downside trading starting this Monday showed the currency pair still testing lower marks.
  • The USD/RUB is near the 87.9300 mark as of this writing.

Lows made early this morning have still not tested depth seen in the last week of June, nor even lower values on the 19th and 20th of June. However, the USD/RUB remains within the lower realms of its mid-term price range, short-term ratios have shown the potential to see a bearish trend. While many traders do not wager on the USD/RUB because of a lack of transparency, some technical traders who are pragmatic and simply attracted to interesting trends may find the USD/RUB still intriguing.

USD/RUB and Correlations to Broad Forex Market

The USD/RUB will react to tomorrow’s U.S Consumer Price Index numbers, and to Friday’s Producer Price Index figures. Traders may find it hard to believe the USD/RUB has the capability to trade in a correlated manner to the broad Forex market. The currency pair does often show its own tendencies and does not always match behavioral sentiment in global financial institutions instantaneously, but technically there seems to still be evidence the USD/RUB takes hints from U.S Federal Reserve interest rate outlooks.

Trading volume in the USD/RUB remains extremely thin officially, but the price being offered by brokers is coming via the official exchange rate from Russia. Politics aside, the Russian Central Bank remains rather respected financially even if the Russian government is burdened by a variety of sanctions. Energy resources remain a vital component of the economy in Russia and they still have large clients who trade openly. The USD/RUB can move fast within intraday trading venues.

USD/RUB Support Levels and Near-Term Speculative Bets

  • The 88.0000 level may prove to be interesting short-term resistance. If the price of the currency pair manages to sustain values below this level for solid stretches, it could indicate more bearish sentiment exists within the halls of power concerning the USD/RUB exchange rate.
  • Tomorrow’s inflation numbers from the U.S should be watched and if the number is weaker than expected, this could create a reaction that causes the USD/RUB to move lower.
  • Traders need to remember the USD/RUB doesn’t always react ‘in the moment’ and its trading velocity sometimes appears to come a bit later, this after other Forex pairs have shown their tendencies against the USD.

USD/RUB Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 88.0525

Current Support: 87.8040

High Target: 88.5500

Low Target: 87.0800

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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