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USD/PKR Analysis: Perspective about Technical Wagering in Dark Waters

The USD/PKR via the official Pakistan Central Bank rate is near 278.4500 today which puts the currency pair within the middle of its one month chart, but something interesting may be happening.

USD/PKR Analysis Today 11/07: Tech Wagering Insights (Chart)

  • As the USD/PKR trades officially around the 278.4500 rate this morning, traders who do not pay attention to the currency pair may shrug their shoulders and say nothing is happening.
  • The rate is certainly within the middle ground of its known path over the past month.
  • The USD/PKR exchange rate is not a widely traded currency pair and in fact it is very much governed by the Central Bank of Pakistan which enforces tight controls on its value.

However some Forex brokers do allow traders to pursue wagers on the USD/PKR and these traders may find some intriguing evidence starting to develop technically. The problem with the USD/PKR is that its official rate operates in dark waters, meaning there is little transparency for speculators who are hoping to take advantage of fundamental shifts because of behavioral sentiment reacting to economic data. Traders in the USD/PKR must rely on technical charts and hope their perspectives are right and perhaps have a little luck when betting.

Resistance Levels in USD/PKR Getting Challenged Recently

Intriguingly the USD/PKR over the past couple of weeks has seen technical highs venture towards the 278.8000 level and above on a rather consistent basis. The idea appears to be plausible that patient traders of the USD/PKR could put on a buying position when support levels lower are tested and aim for the higher mark. Overnight charges will factor into the trading of the USD/PKR and there is a concern that price orders get filled properly depending on the Forex brokers’ use of official Pakistan exchange rates.

Traders of the USD/PKR cannot be overly aggressive with leverage either, because the currency pair also has a tendency to test support levels and sometimes penetrate them lower. The 278.3000 ratio looks appealing as support, but even in yesterday’s trading the 278.2000 mark was hit below. Yes, if a trader can use a wide stop loss, be able to tolerate overnight carrying charges and wait for their take profit orders to trigger when reversals higher occur this could prove to be a winning formula.

USD/PKR Trading Qualities and Lack of Correlation

Deep pockets that allow for downturns, the emotional fortitude to withstand support tests, and the patience to wait for the USD/PKR to trade higher all must be part of the trader’s character. Traders must also understand that no real correlations exist for the USD/PKR in the broad Forex market.

  • Yes, the Pakistan Rupee is traded, but U.S economic data does not have a big impact on the rate the Central Bank of Pakistan lists.
  • Today’s inflation data for example from the U.S which will see the Consumer Price Index statistics, and may not move the USD/PKR.
  • While the global Forex market has seemingly taken on a weaker USD centric viewpoint, the USD/PKR remains within its own world and traders need to acknowledge this dilemma.

Pakistani Rupee Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 278.5700

Current Support: 278.3200

High Target: 278.8000

Low Target: 278.2900

Ready to trade our daily Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top brokers & trading apps in Pakistan to check out. 

Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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