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USD/ILS Analysis: Mid-Term Lows Accomplished as Sentiment Improves

The USD/ILS has moved to new lows early this morning and is challenging value not seen since the last week in March; as financial institutions appear to have turned more optimistic.

USD/ILS Analysis Today - 11/07: Mid-Term Lows Hit (Chart)

  • The USD/ILS exchange rate is trading near the 3.63875 ratio in early trading this morning.
  • The USD/ILS has seen a bearish trend emerge since the 3rd of July when the currency pair was touching the 3.77700 vicinity.
  • U.S economic data has been weaker which has effectively caused USD selling, and perhaps financial institutions watching Israel’s conflict are more comfortable regarding outlook.

The Central Bank of Israel also let it be known recently that no change to the current interest rate is anticipated. This as the nation deals with economic turbulence caused by the war and its effect on domestic growth and inflation. The USD/ILS broke through the 3.70000 level on the 8th of July and this ratio was slightly challenged on Tuesday, but the currency pair has mustered more incremental selling.

Short-Term Price Velocity and Coming Attractions

This morning’s trading in the USD/ILS has seen some bearish price velocity hit, as the currency pair suddenly went from the 3.65750 area to a low of nearly 3.63320 briefly. The speed of the decline early in the day points towards a large transaction having taken place which found an imbalance. However since touching this mid-term low not seen since the 25th of March, the USD/ILS has not seen a volatile reversal higher. This may indicate bearish sentiment continues to be strong in financial institutions.

Support levels should be watched carefully today in the USD/ILS. The 3.60000 level might be a target for some sellers, but this price may prove too ambitious for day traders who are using leverage and cannot withstand the slings and arrows of Forex fluctuations. Traders also have to remember that U.S inflation data is on the schedule today and tomorrow, which will certainly influence the USD/ILS over the next day and a half.

Quick Hitting USD/ILS Trades Before and After U.S Inflation Reports

Traders with open positions of the USD/ILS before the release of today’s U.S Consumer Price Index data will be playing with fire. Recent economic data from the U.S has produced weaker than expected outcomes, but inflation reports have continued to be rather stubborn. If the CPI numbers meet or come in below expectations today, this could fuel additional selling but it will also set the table for an important day of Forex on Friday.

  • The U.S will release Producer Price Index numbers tomorrow which could cause more volatility if there are surprises, this would cause the USD/ILS to react.
  • Also a Consumer Sentiment reading will be published tomorrow in the U.S and will affect the broad markets which will certainly have an effect on behavioral sentiment in the USD/ILS.

USD/ILS Short Term Outlook:

Current Resistance: 3.64450

Current Support: 3.63700

High Target: 3.67170

Low Target: 3.60040

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Robert Petrucci
About Robert Petrucci
Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.
 

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