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Gold Analysis: Dollar Rebound Pauses Gold's Gains

  • Gold prices retreated below $2,350 an ounce during yesterday's trading session, extending losses from a one-month high of $2,390 touched on July 5th.
  • This was as markets continued to assess the timing and extent of potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in the coming quarters.

Gold Analysis Today 10/7: Rebound Pauses Gains (graph)

In his congressional testimony, Fed Chair Powell reiterated the central bank's recent stance that further progress against inflation is necessary before initiating US rate cuts, although he noted that excessive risks have become larger amid evidence of labor market weakness.

Meanwhile, about 75% of the market has positioned the US central bank to begin cutting interest rates in September before delivering another cut this year. Also, bullion assets have been pressured by lower demand for safety amid hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

As for the factors affecting the gold market, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose slightly above the 105 level on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, in his testimony before Congress, reiterated caution about US interest rate cuts. Likewise, Powell stressed that the Fed will not consider cutting interest rates until it is confident that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, noting that the first quarter data did not provide such confidence. Concurrently, markets are focused on this week’s key US inflation data, which may provide insight into the future path of interest rates.

According to the economic calendar results, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for June is expected to show a 0.1% increase in consumer prices compared to May, while the core CPI is likely to rise by 0.2%. Furthermore, producer prices are expected to rise by 0.1%, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in May, while core producer prices are expected to rise by 0.2%.

Another factor affecting the gold market is the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note rose above 4.3% on Tuesday, rebounding slightly from a one-week low of 4.28% since July 5. Markets continued to gauge the timing and extent of the expected monetary easing by the Federal Reserve. In his testimony before the US Congress, Fed Chairman Powell confirmed that inflation is still not low enough for the Fed to start an easing cycle, weighing on Treasuries. However, the chairman of the US central bank indicated that the central bank is considering tightening risks, especially since the labor market is not overheating.

The latest economic data showed that consumer inflation expectations for the coming year fell for the second straight month to 3% in June from 3.2% in May. Similarly, data last week pointed to rising unemployment rates, contracting services activity and weak private sector hiring. Meanwhile, the Treasury is set to issue $119 billion in new bonds and notes this week.

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     On the stock trading platform front, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq stock indexes were steady at record highs on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones rising over 50 points amid Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate. Over again, Powell reiterated that the Fed won't lower the target range for the federal funds rate until there is greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards the 2% target.

    US CPI and PPI data are also due this week, while earnings season is about to kick off. On the trading front, the financial sector led the market, with strong performances from JPMorgan (+2%) and Bank of America (+2.6%) shares, while materials stocks were the biggest laggards. Shares of tech giants were mostly higher, with Nvidia (1.2%), Apple (0.3%), Amazon (0.1%), Meta (0.4%), and Eli Lilly (0.8%) up. On the other hand, Microsoft (-1.3%) was down.

    Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

    According to the performance on the daily chart attached, the price of gold is still in a good position to return to the upward movement. The strength of expectations for the future psychological resistance of $ 2400 per ounce will return. Obviously, if prices return towards the resistance levels of $ 2370 and $ 2385 per ounce again. So far, we still prefer to buy gold from every downward level and the closest support levels for gold currently are $ 2349 and $ 2330 per ounce respectively. Now, all eyes are on the US inflation levels and then the path of global geopolitical tensions.

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    Mahmoud Abdallah
    About Mahmoud Abdallah
    Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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