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Silver Forecast: Recovers but Gives Back Some Gains

  • Silver initially shot higher during the trading session on Monday, but almost as soon as the open outcry section of the futures day opened, we started seeing seller pressure.

So, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. I do think that the $30 level above is going to continue to be crucial. If that is in fact the case, it'll be interesting to see whether or not we can actually rise above it if we cannot that could be a major problem for the market and we could see a longer-term sell-off It'll be interesting because a lot of this I believe comes down to the Federal Reserve and its likelihood of staying tight for longer However, the silver market is also an industrial metal So you have to keep in mind that the jobs number coming out hotter than anticipated could actually be a positive thing for this market.

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    In general, I do think that the $30 level will tell the story, assuming that we even get back up there. If we do not, then we could see a significant amount of downward pressure to the 50-day EMA and the $28.50 level, both of which could offer support. I think once you break below there, silver finds itself in serious trouble. This would probably be accompanied by a stronger than usual expected US dollar, which of course is a very real possibility with the interest rate differentials around the world. So, we are at a major inflection point. I would get long above $30. I will go ahead and open up a new position. But right now, it doesn't look like we're quite ready to do that. Next, I will pay attention to the $28.50 level to see how the market reacts in that general area to give me an idea as to what happens in the longer term.

    Always make sure to be cautious with your position sizing in the silver market, because volatility is the norm, and it can be a very expensive market for those who play it incorrectly.

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    Christopher Lewis
    About Christopher Lewis

    Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex for several years. He writes about Forex for many online publications, including his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy.

     

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