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Gold Analysis: Forming an Uptrend Channel

  • Gold prices are trading higher today, Thursday, reaching a two-week high of $2345 an ounce as slowing US economic performance has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates this year.
  • According to the results of the economic calendar, data on Tuesday showed that US retail sales barely rose, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment.
  • This, along with recent labor market and price data indicating easing pressures, prompted the Federal Reserve to seek further confirmation of slowing inflation before cutting interest rates likely by the end of the year.

Gold Analysis Today 20/6: Forming an Uptrend Channel (graph)

Meanwhile, Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee described the latest reading of consumer price inflation as "excellent" on Tuesday and expressed optimism about further slowdown in inflation this year. Currently, investors are focusing on weekly unemployment claims due later in the day and purchasing managers' indices on Friday for insights on consumption and economic strength.

On a gold market-impacting front, the DXY US Dollar Index is hovering around 105.3 today as US investors return from a one-day holiday, while markets look to further economic data for better guidance on expectations. US new housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims are scheduled for release today, Thursday, while S&P Globe’s manufacturing and services PMI reports are due out Friday.

Earlier this week, the US dollar came under pressure as weaker-than-expected US retail sales data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will be forced to cut US interest rates soon. Now, markets see a roughly two-thirds chance that the Fed will start easing policy in September, with rates expected to be cut twice this year.

Also, investors are looking ahead to the Bank of England’s policy decision later today, which is expected to hold rates steady before delivering its first rate cut in August.

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    Gold Price Forecast and Analysis Today:

    According to the performance on the daily chart, the upward path of gold price is stronger. According to the performance on the daily chart, moving above the resistance of $2355 per ounce will be important for more bulls' confidence and technical readiness for further upward movement. Moreover, expectations will return to the future of the psychological resistance of $2400 per ounce again if it moves first towards the resistance of $2375. Increased global geopolitical tensions and more central bank purchases of gold may increase its momentum to move towards that. Finaly, we still prefer to buy gold from every downward level.

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    Mahmoud Abdallah
    About Mahmoud Abdallah
    Mahmoud has been working fulltime in the Foreign Exchange markets for 12 years. Offers his analysis, articles and recommendations at the most renewed Arabic websites specialized in the global financial markets, and his experience gained a lot of interest among Arab traders. Works on providing technical analysis, market news, free signals and more with follow up for at least 12 hours a day, and aims to simplify forex trading and the concept of trading for his audience.

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