EUR/CHF Forecast: Bounces after SNB Rate Cuts

• The Euro has rallied significantly during the early hours on Thursday as the Swiss National Bank decided to cut rates.
• This makes quite a bit of sense as we have seen the Swiss franc lose value across the board, and the euro had been extraordinarily oversold against the Swiss franc.
• The question of course now is whether or not we can keep up any type of upward momentum, because the euro has a long history of getting absolutely waxed against the Swiss franc every time it airshows strength.

A lot of this comes down to the fact that a lot of Europeans will throw money into Switzerland to protect it. In other words, a lot of the big-money players out there are willing to take money out of European countries and put it into Switzerland in order to protect it. Large inflows into Switzerland obviously can overwhelm the system, as it is a very small country and therefore although a major currency, the Swiss franc itself can be easily moved around. This has been seen multiple times with the Swiss National Bank intervening as an example.

Technical Analysis

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This is a pair that is still all over the place, and at this point in time I think there is a lot of misunderstanding when it comes to how the EUR/CHF pair should or should not behave. We have bounced from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, or perhaps more importantly, the 0.95 level. The size of the candlestick for the day is rather impressive, but we have given back some of the gains. If we can break above the top of the candlestick, then it’s likely that we go looking to the 0.96 level.

If we can break above there then the 200-Day EMA comes into the picture near the 0.9650 level. Anything above there would technically be an uptrend, so a lot of people would be paying close attention to it. However, if we were to turn around a break down below the lows of the last couple of candlesticks, that would be very negative for the euro and very positive for the Swiss franc.

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