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WTI Crude Oil Weekly Forecast: Mid-Term Values Clearly in Speculative Play

WTI Crude Oil finished the week near the 75.350 level which puts the commodity directly within the lower price elements of values not seen since the first quarter of 2024.

Crude Oil Weekly Forecast- 09/06: Mid-Term Spec Play (Chart)

  • WTI Crude Oil will start its trading near the 75.350 ratio this week.
  • A low of nearly 72.500 was challenged on Tuesday of last week, a price that had last been seen on the 5th of February.
  • The ability of WTI Crude Oil to selloff with greater price velocity last week likely didn’t come as a surprise for many traders who have been paying attention to the commodity.
  • WTI Crude Oil has been within a rather solid bearish trend since the last week of April.

WTI Crude Oil did manage to climb after touching lows last week and by finishing above the 75.000 ratio, the commodity climbed back to important technical considerations for speculators. The question is if the 75.000 level can become durable support or if it will falter once again. Economic activity globally is in a precarious spot, while there are signs of improvement there haven’t been a groundswell of growth. In other words demand remains stable, but is not showing signs of speculative buying from the largest purchasers.

OPEC Meeting and a Lack of a Fearful Response for WTI Crude Oil

OPEC conducted a virtual meeting on Sunday of last week and essentially agreed to keep production in place for the moment and to consider additional cuts later this year. It is also known U.S producers who are not part of OPEC have been supplying WTI Crude Oil well and this has helped stabilize the prospect of fearful buying. Even though the so called summer driving season is upon us in the U.S this has not created a large amount of buying pressure either.

WTI Crude Oil traded at its high last week on Monday, around the 77.400 vicinity, touched Tuesday lows and then reversed upwards and reached an apex near 76.220 on early Friday before stumbling going into the weekend. Speculative price action still seems to have plenty of bearish sentiment creating headwinds in WTI Crude Oil. Early price action this coming week will focus on the 75.000 level and create choppy speculative action, but the commodity in truth has not been violent regarding price.

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    Support Concerns Again this Week for WTI Crude Oil

    The ability of WTI Crude Oil to continue a downwards trend should be treated carefully by day traders, particularly by those who expect a sudden price reversal upwards to be sustained. The inability to trade above the 76.000 level in a sustained manner after falling below the mark on Monday of last week is intriguing. Yes, the level was tested on Friday, but the pushback going into the weekend and demonstration of headwinds is a likely signal bearish sentiment remains in the market.

    • Traders counting on news development to suddenly develop in the Middle East which can rupture confidence may be making bets that will not work out.
    • Short-term trading on Monday and Tuesday of this coming week should be monitored, and if the 76.000 level is not challenged higher, this could mean support levels below will be tested again.

    WTI Crude Oil Weekly Outlook:

    Speculative price range for WTI Crude Oil is 72.100 to 77.800

    Having tested lows which had last been seen in the first week of February, puts WTI Crude Oil into the speculative mindset for those considering further downside price action. Traders however need to remain conservative and understand the commodity can reverse unexpectedly. Sellers should remain realistic regarding their targets and it may be best to monitor the opening hours of WTI Crude Oil on Monday before stepping into the betting pits.

    If the 75.000 level falters early and prices remain under the ratio, there is the knowledge the commodity did trade lower last week. The idea that a speculative buying assault bought into WTI Crude Oil on Thursday near the 74.000 is of interest. If the 74.000 level is tested early this week again it will certainly produce fireworks. Downside opportunities in WTI Crude Oil do look speculatively interesting for the moment.

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    Robert Petrucci
    About Robert Petrucci
    Robert Petrucci has worked in the Forex, commodity, and financial profession since 1993. Important aspects of his work involve risk analysis and advisory services. As an advisor in a Family Office he maintains a conservative approach for wealth management and investments. Robert also works in private finance with investors and companies delivering financial and management services.

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