Signals for the Lira Against the Dollar Today
- Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 32.15.
- Set a stop-loss order below 31.05.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 32.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 32.47.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 32.60.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 31.95.
Turkish lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY pair continued its movement in a limited range with the pair stabilizing throughout this week. Recently, the momentum of the movement has receded amidst the continued anticipation of developments in monetary policy in Turkey.
Reports have revealed stable expectations for interest rate fixation in Turkey, despite rising inflation. According to estimates, inflation is expected to reach 75% in May compared to 0.70% last April. The expectations of the Central Bank of Turkey to maintain its policy of fixing interest rates reflect a kind of reassurance mixed with optimism about future economic expectations.
The Central Bank of Turkey acknowledges one of the highest inflation rates in the world, after raising the interest rate to 50% last March to top the nominal interest rates list among the G20 countries.
Economists expect inflation to slow down, starting from the second half of the year, leading to a consensus to keep the main interest rate at 50%. While the central bank has maintained interest rates, indicating a tight monetary policy, raising interest rates remains possible if inflation does not recede by June. Clearly, it is worth noting that raising interest rates is not the only tool that the central bank may use to tighten the interest rate, as it also has alternative financial tools to support the tough economic conditions.
In addition to the challenge of overcoming market instability and strengthening the central bank's foreign exchange reserves, Turkey faces challenges such as strong consumer spending and continuous inflation in service prices. Ultimately, the central bank aims to alleviate domestic demand by delaying monetary tightening, while keeping options open for further interest rate hikes if necessary to curb inflation.
USD/TRY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical front, the USD/TRY recorded stability within a limited movement range at the top of a descending triangle pattern on the four-hour timeframe, as shown in the chart. Also, the price is moving around the 50 and 200 moving averages on the four-hour timeframe in an indication of the divergence recorded by the price. While on the larger timeframe, the general upward trend continues with the price moving above those averages. In case of a rise, the pair may head towards resistance levels concentrated at 32.40 and 32.50, respectively. While on the other hand, the price is trading above support levels at 32.06 and 31.70, respectively. Eventually, the Turkish lira price forecast includes the pair's divergence as long as it remains stable within the triangle pattern shown.
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