Potential Signal:
I believe that buying this pair at the 91.10 level makes a certain amount of sense. I would put a stop loss near the 89.26 level and aim for the 93.08 level above.
- The US dollar initially crashed during the early hours of Monday, but it looks like the 90 rubles level will continue to be important.
- The fact that we have bounced enough to form a bit of a hammer right at the 200-Day EMA does suggest that we are going to continue to go back and forth in the previous consolidation range.
- As we have broken down below the bottom of it, it certainly makes sense that we will continue to see a lot of volatility, but at this point in time it certainly looks as if the US dollar is still going to stay resilient.
Ultimately, this is a market that has been bouncing around between the 90 RUB level and the 94 RUB level. Because of this, I think a lot of traders will be paying close attention to the top of the candlestick for Monday, because if we can break above there could open up a move of about 3 rubles to the upside. That being said, this is also a pair that is somewhat illiquid at times, and of course not all brokers will carry it due to various sanctions.
Until something changes, I won’t
At this point in time, the peer look like it was going to change its overall attitude, but it is shown clearly that there are a lot of buyers underneath, so unless we break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Monday, then I just don’t see an argument for trying to change the overall approach to this market. If you are a short-term trader, meaning over the course of a few minutes, you might struggle with this market. However, if you have a little bit more of a patient’s streak in you, then it’s likely that we could see buyers come in and hang on to this pair for a week or 2, only to fit profit then.
Keep in mind that sanctions are still an issue for Russia, but quite frankly the Russian economy isn’t struggling the way that some people thought it would. After all, the Chinese are more than willing to continue to buy Russian goods and crude oil, and the same can be said for various other major economies in the region.
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